Monday, October 24, 2011

Observation on FDI in retail

http://paper.li/Bunibroto/1309952288/2011/10/24


Retailing can normally be defined as “the sale of goods  or  merchandise  from  a  fixed  location, such as a department store or kiosk, or by post, in small or individual lots for direct consumption by the purchaser

Retailing  in  India  is  slightly  different  than  in developed  markets,  in  that  it  is  divided  in  to organized and unorganized retail.  Organized retail  could  be  described  as  when  trading  is taking place under a License or through people that are registered for sales tax or income tax. Unorganized  retail  is  India's  more  traditional style  of  “low-cost  retailing,  for  example,  the local  kirana  shops,  owner-manned  general stores, paan/beedi shops, convenience stores, hand carts and pavement vendors.“The major difference between organized and unorganized retailing lies in its number (chain) of store operations. An unorganized outlet may be just stand alone or can have [a]
maximum of 2-3 outlets in a city, where as the organized outlets are "any retail chain
(more than two outlets) which is professionally managed (even if its family
run), has an accounting transparency… and organized Supply Chain Management with
centralized quality control and sourcing (certain parts can be locally made) can be
termed as an "organized retailing" in India.

Reform

There were “half-hearted attempts made by the Rajiv Gandhi government in the mid-1980s to selectively open the economy to foreign trade and  relax  import  restrictions,  which  did  not have the intended consequence of stimulating investment.

In 1990-91 the current account deficit was 3.1% and inflation was 12%. Things began to get out of  hand  and  the  government  went  to  foreign lenders pledging gold held at the Reserve Bank of  India  (India's  central  bank)  for  short  term loans  so  as  to  help  get  through  the  financial crisis. In 1990, just as China was beginning to become a popular place for investors, India was in  the  middle  of  economic  agony  after  many
years of over-zealous government control over economic activity, isolation and poorly
managed  fiscal  policy. Foreign finance had all but closed the door on India Economic reform was now on the agenda after the  financial  disaster  of  1991;  and  these
reforms “brought  in three elements that  India was never previously allowed to have:
competition, entrepreneurship and the beginnings  of  world-class  infrastructure.”
The post-reform performance of the economy had  been  good,  and  between  1994  and1997 Gross  Domestic  Product  (GDP)  grew  in  real terms by over 7%, which placed India among the best-performing countries in the world.However, a study of the economic reforms and liberalisation of the Indian economy by Kalirajan and  Sankar  (2003)  acknowledges  this  but highlights  that whilst  this economic growth  is encouraging, “there is no doubt that given the low  per  capita  income  the  need  for  an
accelerated growth rate becomes urgent.  The inflation rate was on average at a high of 10.7% per annum in the first five years of the reform period, but gradually came down to less than 5% in the last few years”. “Between  1991  and 2004, India's economy grew by an average of 6%.Farndon  (2007)  highlights  the  issue  of  job insecurity  in  India,  and  how  few  people  are employed in a recognized position.  To explain, he uses the example that in 2006, India had a workforce of 470 million, but only 35 million of these (approx. 7%) were in formal, income tax  paying  positions    and  of  this  35 million,  the majority  (21  million)  are  employed  by  the government.  Essentially,  “a  country  with  a population  of  over  a  billion  has  hardly  more income tax payers than the UK.  All the rest – some 435 million people – work in what Indians
call the 'unorganized sector'”.

It is evident that 2009 is going to be a bad year in terms of Imports/Export Growth and GDP for India, but this is consistent with the global financial crisis that has been playing out during this research i.e. 2008-09.  Looking at  the data going back  to 2003-07 however, GDP growth has been  very healthy average at 8.9% per annum real growth, and despite a rise in inflation in 2008, this is now beginning to settle and is forecast to drop further.

FDI in retail

60+ years after independence India'sgovernment is now starting to take a closer look
at  liberalising  its  foreign  investment  policies. In 2006 the Government has promoted limited FDI in single-brand retailing and has considered  opening  up  further  in  a  phased system  with  emphasis  on  joint  ventures  with domestic  players,  evident  with  the  highly controversial  Wal-Mart joint  venture  withBharti.  Studying other countries such as China, where restrictions were initially imposed on the locations and formats in which foreign retailers could  operate  is  also  on  the  agenda  of  the Indian Government..
The government has created a specific Board to deal with promotion of FDI in India and to be the sole  agency  to handle matters  related  to  FDI. The 'Foreign Investment Promotion Board' (FIPB) as  it  is  known,  is  chaired  by  the  Secretary Industry  (Department  of  Industrial  Policy  & Promotion or DIPP) within the office of the Prime
Minister.
When looking specifically at FDI in retail, India certainly has some 'political debates',
particularly  regarding  the  potential  risk  of displacing  labour  in  the  retail  sector.  Retail employs  a  huge  number  of  people  in  the 'unorganised' sector, the majority of which does not have any skills.  This has made retail a major political  issue  as  there  is  pressure  on  the government to compensate the people who are displaced and provide alternative employment options.

In terms of the Retail sector, foreign investment is currently limited to 51% in single brand retail stores  and  100%  FDI  in  wholesale  cash  and carry.  No  multi-brand  retailing  is  allowed. Subject  to  these  equity  conditions,  a  foreign investor can set up a registered company and operate under the same rules and regulations as an Indian company.  This  implies  that foreign  companies  can  now  sell  goods  sold
globally  under  a  single  brand,  such  as  in  the case  of  Reebok,  Nokia  and  Adidas.  However, retailing of multiple brands, even if the goods are  produced  by  the  same  manufacturer,  is presently  not allowed. Foreign investments are freely repatriable, and are regulated under the Foreign  Exchange  Management  Act  (1999) (FEMA),  administered  by  the  Reserve  Bank  of India's Exchange Control Department.

KPMG (2008) highlight just some of the key legislation that could have a potential impact on foreign investors setting up in India, as per below:

· Payment of Bonus Act 1965
· Minimum Wages Act 1948
· Shops & Establishment Act
· Contract Labour (Regulation and Abolition) Act 1970
· Industrial Disputes Act 1947
· Workman's Compensation Act
· Profession Tax
· Maternity Benefit Act 1961
· Employees Provident Fund and Miscellaneous Provisions Act 1952
· The Employees State Insurance Act 1948
· Goods & Services Tax (GST) (Proposed for July 2010

According to RRL (2009) , 27% of global GDP is attributed  to retail, and  in various developing markets  organized  retail  contributes  typically anywhere  between  20%  and  55%  of  GDP. Placing the Indian retail market at approximately $300 billion, with a growth rate of 13% per year, RRL point out that presently, although organized retailing is only approximately 5%, this is likely to grow to 10% by  2011.  Therefore,  RRL  have  begun  an implementation plan to create a high spec state of  the  art  retail  infrastructure,  to  include  a strategy for opening multi-format stores such as  convenience,  hypermarket,  speciality  and wholesale stores.

Sajjan Jindal said that “providing industry status is the first basic step needed for reforming the Indian retailing sector. ASSOCHAM  believe  that  the  advantages  of
having an industry status are that it will allow a better  “focus  on  retailing  development,  fiscal incentives, and availability of organized financing  and  establishment of  insurance
norms.” They  feel  the  development  of  the retail sector can  take place at a  faster pace  if there  is  a  comprehensive  legislation  enacted.

Arguments for FDI in Retailing

1.    The opening up of FDI should be phased, over a 5-10 year time frame so as to allow time for domestic retailers to adjust.
2.    FDI in multi-brand retailing should be kept restricted in the near future, as Indian retailers would not be able to face this competition immediately.
3.    It is not currently desirable for FDI to be above 51%, even in single brand retailing. This will allow checking and control of foreign retailer's business operations, and will help to protect the interests of domestic retailers.  However, the sector cap (equity limit) could be increased in due course as it has been in the telecom, banking and insurance markets.
4.    Certain products that are sensitive should not be allowed, for example, arms/ammunition and military equipment. The excluded products should be expressly stated in policy.
5.    There should be restricted zones imposed by the government for the purposes of city planning.E.g. Supermarkets/Hypermarkets should be kept away from the city centers to protect the unorganized and small retailers who operate in these areas.

The main findings of the ICRIER study revealed
that FDI in retailing led to:

1.  Increased speed of development in modern
     formats
2.  Improved productivity and efficiency of the
     retail sector
3.  Enhanced sourcing
4.  Improved quality of employment – no
     negative impact on employment if the
     economy is growing.
5.  Encouraged investment in supply chain
6.  Led to integration of suppliers, logistic
     service and retailers – reduction in the
     number of intermediaries
7.  Linked local suppliers, farmers,
     manufactures to global markets
8.  Low cost global retailers likely to lower
     prices
9.  Consumers are assured of product quality,
     better service & shopping experience.

Excerpts from FDI in retail sector “An all India research report”

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